AGAINST THE GODS THE REMARKABLE STORY OF RISK PDF

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Bernstein, Peter L. Against the gods: The remarkable story of risk/Peter L. Bernstein. р. ΕΤΤ. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN A Business Week, New York Times Business, and USA Today Bestseller " Ambitious and readable an engaging introduction to the oddsmakers, whom. Editorial Reviews. kaz-news.info Review. With the stock market breaking records almost daily, Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk Kindle Edition.


Against The Gods The Remarkable Story Of Risk Pdf

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Against the Gods-The Remarkable Story of Risk - Download as PDF File .pdf), Text File .txt) or read online. Peter L Bernstein - Against the Gods - The Remarkable Story of Risk - Ebook download as PDF File .pdf) or read book online. Story of risk. kaz-news.info - Ebook download as PDF File .pdf) or read book online.

As one ingenious idea has piled on top of another, the development of quantitative techniques for managing risk has enhanced our quality of life and set the accelerating tempo of modern times.

These methods allow people to take more risks than they otherwise would—a benefit to society, which cannot progress without risk takers. Without the laws of probability, no great bridges would span our widest rivers, polio would still be crippling children, and no airplanes would fly.

Without life insurance, young families would have to turn to charity if their breadwinner were to die in the prime of life. And without health insurance, many more people would die before their time.

Without fire insurance, only the wealthiest could afford to own homes. Without the ability to sell their crops at a price fixed before the crops are harvested, farmers would provide us with less food to eat.

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If there had been no liquid capital markets allowing savers to diversify their risks, the spirit of enterprise would have been stifled. The great capital-intensive industries of our age, such as the railroads and electric power, would, Soviet-style, have been inefficient creatures of the state—or, worse, might not have developed at all.

Thousands of our most productive companies would never have come into existence. But nothing good comes for free. The mathematically driven devices of modernism contain the seeds of a dehumanizing technology that offsets the positive features of risk management. Our lives teem with numbers, but numbers are only tools; they have no soul.

At the center of the whole process is the computer, which consumes numbers like a voracious monster whose existence depends on ever greater quantities of digits to crunch, digest, and spew back out. The result is a culture that threatens to become so complex and frequently so arcane as to constitute a new religion. Our lives teem with numbers, but numbers are only tools and have no soul. I see three dangers in these trends: the exposure to discontinuity, the arrogance of quantifying the unquantifiable, and the threat of increasing risk instead of managing it.

Taken together, these three dangers can be lethal. Furthermore, although Einstein may have been correct that God does not play with dice in nature, the outcomes of most of the risks we take, as well as of all the risks we create, depend on the decisions of other human beings—especially in business and finance. The English journalist G. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite. Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians. It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait.

Many of us can recall the moment in the late s when bonds first yielded more than stocks, blowing apart a relationship sanctified by more than 80 years of history.

That wildness was followed shortly by another, even more frightening paradigm shift, when the price of oil broke loose from the long-standing grasp of the Texas Railroad Commission, which had regulated world oil prices since the early s by controlling U. The amazing stability of key relationships over so many years depleted the capacity of people to imagine anything different. Worse, nothing suggested that they even should try to imagine something different.

Consequently, the calamities may not have been unpredictable, but they had become unthinkable. Now, consider this: If no one was able even to imagine that stock yields would remain below bond yields for decades, that bonds are in fact risk investments, and that OPEC could dominate the world energy scene, how could we have expected a computer to imagine wildness like that?

How can we instruct a computer to model events that have never occurred, that exist beyond the realm of human imagination? How can we program into the computer concepts that we cannot even program into ourselves? Without the ability to sell their crops at a price fixed before the crops are harvested, farmers would provide us with less food to eat. If there had been no liquid capital markets allowing savers to diversify their risks, the spirit of enterprise would have been stifled. The great capital-intensive industries of our age, such as the railroads and electric power, would, Soviet-style, have been inefficient creatures of the state—or, worse, might not have developed at all.

Thousands of our most productive companies would never have come into existence.

But nothing good comes for free. The mathematically driven devices of modernism contain the seeds of a dehumanizing technology that offsets the positive features of risk management. Our lives teem with numbers, but numbers are only tools; they have no soul. At the center of the whole process is the computer, which consumes numbers like a voracious monster whose existence depends on ever greater quantities of digits to crunch, digest, and spew back out. The result is a culture that threatens to become so complex and frequently so arcane as to constitute a new religion.

Our lives teem with numbers, but numbers are only tools and have no soul. I see three dangers in these trends: the exposure to discontinuity, the arrogance of quantifying the unquantifiable, and the threat of increasing risk instead of managing it.

Taken together, these three dangers can be lethal.

Furthermore, although Einstein may have been correct that God does not play with dice in nature, the outcomes of most of the risks we take, as well as of all the risks we create, depend on the decisions of other human beings—especially in business and finance. The English journalist G. The commonest kind of trouble is that it is nearly reasonable, but not quite.

Life is not an illogicality; yet it is a trap for logicians.

It looks just a little more mathematical and regular than it is; its exactitude is obvious, but its inexactitude is hidden; its wildness lies in wait. Many of us can recall the moment in the late s when bonds first yielded more than stocks, blowing apart a relationship sanctified by more than 80 years of history.

That wildness was followed shortly by another, even more frightening paradigm shift, when the price of oil broke loose from the long-standing grasp of the Texas Railroad Commission, which had regulated world oil prices since the early s by controlling U.

The amazing stability of key relationships over so many years depleted the capacity of people to imagine anything different. Worse, nothing suggested that they even should try to imagine something different.

Consequently, the calamities may not have been unpredictable, but they had become unthinkable.

Now, consider this: If no one was able even to imagine that stock yields would remain below bond yields for decades, that bonds are in fact risk investments, and that OPEC could dominate the world energy scene, how could we have expected a computer to imagine wildness like that? How can we instruct a computer to model events that have never occurred, that exist beyond the realm of human imagination?

How can we program into the computer concepts that we cannot even program into ourselves? Clearly, we cannot put future data into the computer, because we do not know the future data.

Instead, we program past data—the only available fuel for our models. As Paul Samuelson has pointed out, history provides us with only one sample of the economy and the capital markets, not with thousands of separate, autonomous, and stochastic numbers.

Even though many economic and financial variables have approximately normal distributions, the picture is never perfect. Resemblance to truth is not the same thing as truth.

Those outliers and imperfections are where the wildness lurks. In South India, many women administered villages, towns, and divisions, and ushered in new social and religious institutions.

Historical practices[ edit ] There have been positive practices of women as subject of respect in India, and there have been regressive practices as well. Here are some practices Naari Puja[ edit ] In Kerala's Alappuzha district, an ancient temple called Chakkulathu Kavu holds an exceptionally remarkable annual ritual of worshipping women in the month of December.

Women in India

Popularly known as Naari Puja, the ritual is conducted every year on the first Friday of Dhanu maasam. The chief priest of the temple himself conducts the puja. Thousands of women are worshipped during the ceremony regardless of the caste, religion or creed they belong to. Women are seated on a chair peetom for the ritual and the chief priest washes their feet. The women are later garlanded and offered flowers.

Sati[ edit ] Sati was a custom among some communities, in which the widow was immolated alive on her husband's funeral pyre. It only started becoming regular after AD. The custom is named after the Hindu goddess Sati , who sacrificed herself rather than endure insults about her husband Shiva.

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Roshen Dalal has said that its mention in the Puranas indicates that it slowly grew from 5th-7th century and became a custom around ADm [41] It was abolished by the British in There have been around forty reported cases of Sati since Indian independence. Nevertheless, they were free to choose partners, from among married and unmarried men alike. These relationships could be long and stable, or just for a short period of time. But in no way were these women economically dependent on their partners.

They learned music and dance, and as many as 64 types of arts. They would dance and sing in temples or in front of royalty and earn gold and land as a reward. Some chose to dedicate themselves only to God and stayed without a partner all through their life.

The tradition of Devadasi culture can be traced back to as early as the 7th century, particularly in southern parts of India during the reigns of the Cholas , Chelas , and Pandyas.

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The women were well treated and respected, and held a high social status in the society. It was common for them to be invited to be present at or initiate sacred religious rituals. As long as the temples and empires flourished, so did they.

With the death of the empires, the Devadasi practice degenerated into a practice of sex labour, and child prostitution. A law banning the practice of Devadasi prostitution was enacted. The Rajput bride A Travancore princess playing Swarabat.

Travancore became a princelely state in the British Empire during 19th century. While this might suggest that there was no positive British contribution during the Raj era, that is not entirely the case.

This practice was initially met with local resistance, as it flew in the face of tradition. Ishwar Chandra Vidyasagar's crusade for improvement in the situation of widows led to the Widow Remarriage Act of Many women reformers such as Pandita Ramabai also helped the cause of women.These methods allow people to take more risks than they otherwise would—a benefit to society, which cannot progress without risk takers. English anatomist William Harvey had dared to overthrow the medical teachings of the ancients to discover the circulatory system of the blood—and Rembrandt had painted the Anatomy Lesson.

Kittur Chennamma was the Rani of Kittur , who led an armed force against the British East India Company in in defiance of the doctrine of lapse in an attempt to maintain Indian control over the region, but was defeated in the third war and died imprisoned.

The English journalist G. The introduction of portfolio insurance in the late s encouraged a higher level of equity exposure than had prevailed before that invention. However, on 28 September , the Supreme Court of India lifted the ban on the entry of women. Sati[ edit ] Sati was a custom among some communities, in which the widow was immolated alive on her husband's funeral pyre.

Probability created a resurgence of interest in the history of probability.