Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data. Friedman, George. The next years: a forecast for the 21st century / George Friedman. —. 1st ed. p. cm. The Next Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century. A fascinating, eye-opening and often shocking look at what lies ahead for the U.S. and the world from one. PDF | On Jan 1, , David Barnes and others published The Next Years.
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Editorial Reviews. kaz-news.info Review. site Best of the Month, January "Be The Next Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century - Kindle edition by George Friedman. Download it once and read it on your Kindle device, PC. Read The Next Years PDF - A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman Anchor | China fragments, a new Cold War with Russia. Secret War) offers a global tour of war and peace in the upcoming century. the future with THE NEXT YEARS: A FORECAST FOR THE 21st CENTURY.
Although mainly about the geopolitics and wars of the century, the book also makes some economic, social, and technological predictions for the 21st century. It will be characterized by Russian attempts to expand its sphere of influence into Central and Eastern Europe , coupled with a buildup of Russian military capabilities. During this period, Russia's military will pose a regional challenge to the United States.
The United States will become a close ally to some Central and Eastern European countries, all of whom will be dedicated to resisting Russian geopolitical threats during this period. Friedman speculates in the book that the United States will probably become a close ally of some Eastern European countries: Poland , the Czech Republic , Slovakia , Hungary , and Romania. Around , a Polish-led military alliance of countries in Eastern Europe will begin to form, which is referred to in the book as the "Polish Bloc.
Other former Soviet countries will fragment as well. Around this time, China will politically and culturally fragment as well. The book asserts that the rapid economic development of China since will cause internal pressures and inequalities in Chinese society.
Regional tension in mainland China will grow between the prosperous coastal regions and the impoverished interior regions. Friedman gives two possible scenarios: that the Chinese central government will expel outside interests and rule with an iron fist to keep the country together, or that China will fragment , with the central government gradually losing much of its real power and the provinces becoming increasingly autonomous.
He works on the assumption that fragmentation is the most likely scenario. In the s, the collapse of the Russian government and the fragmentation of mainland China will leave Eurasia in general chaos.
Other powers will then move in to annex or establish spheres of influence in the area, and in many cases, regional leaders will secede. In Russia, Chechnya and other Muslim regions , as well as the Pacific Far East will become independent, Finland will annex Karelia , Romania will annex Moldova , Tibet will gain independence with help from India , Taiwan will extend its influence into mainland China, while the United States, European powers , and Japan will re-create regional spheres of influence in mainland China.
New powers arise[ edit ] In the s and s, three main powers will emerge in Eurasia: Turkey , Poland , and Japan. Initially supported by the United States, Turkey will expand its sphere of influence and become a regional power , much as it was during the time of the Ottoman Empire.
The Turkish sphere of influence will extend into the Arab world , which will have increasingly fragmented by then, and north into Russia and other former Soviet countries. Israel will continue to be a powerful nation and will be the only country in the immediate region to remain outside the Turkish sphere of influence.
However, Israel will be forced to come to an accommodation with Turkey due to Turkey's military and political power. Friedman predicts that Japan will change its foreign policy during this time period, becoming more geopolitically aggressive, beginning a major military buildup.
Friedman predicts that Japan will build military strength capable of regionally projecting power across East Asia during this time. Finally, Poland will continue to lead its military alliance, the "Polish Bloc. Now possessing substantial military strength, Poland will expand its economic influence into what was formerly European Russia , and will begin to compete with Turkey for influence in the important economic region of the Volga River Valley.
Around this time, space programs for military use will begin to emerge, and Japan and Turkey will increasingly begin to develop military capabilities in space. Tensions build[ edit ] At the beginning of this period, the United States will be allied with all three powers.
In addition, intuitive feedback has a more physical and immediate impact than a robotic voice or instructions on a screen. In Ease mode, on the other hand, Alive Geometry is more discreet in its movements, informing occupants about the road ahead and any acceleration and braking manoeuvres that are about to happen.
In Boost mode, the entire vehicle focuses on the driver, offering intelligent support to maximize the driving experience. The seat and steering wheel change position, and the centre console moves to become more strongly oriented toward the driver.
As the journey proceeds, the driver can interact with the vehicle via gesture control. The contact analogue BMW Head-Up display of the future uses the entire windscreen to communicate with the driver. In Boost mode, it focuses exclusively on what really matters to the driver: information such as the ideal line, turning-point and speed.
In foggy conditions, for example, this means the driver can benefit from information such as vehicles crossing ahead, before they actually come into sight. In addition, by learning more and more about the driver, the system continuously improves, concentrating on creating at all times the most intense and personal driving experience possible.
BMW Group Streaming.
The transition to Ease mode brings about a complete change of interior ambience. The steering wheel and centre console retract and the headrests move to one side to create a relaxed and welcoming atmosphere. The seats and door panels merge to form a single unit, allowing the driver and passengers to sit at a slight angle.
This makes it easier for them to face each other and sit in a more relaxed position for easier communications. Meanwhile, the Head-Up display offers occupants personalised content along with the information and entertainment they desire. Depending on the driving mode, the focus of the vehicle changes, concentrating on essentials for the driver in Boost mode, and the surroundings and atmosphere in Ease mode, highlighting the impressive landscapes or buildings of interest that the car is passing by, for instance.
Whether the vehicle is in Boost or Ease mode is also clearly apparent to other road users as the trademark kidney grille, double headlights and L-shaped rear lights act as communication tool. Their different colours of light indicate which mode the vehicle is currently in. Companion: The intelligent digital partner connects driver and car. The Companion is symbolised by a small sculptural element which represents the driver-vehicle connection.
It also represents the constant exchange of data: the more it learns about the owner and their mobility habits, the smarter it becomes. At some stage it knows its drivers well enough to automatically perform routine tasks for them and offer suitable advice when needed.
Irrespective of the vehicle itself, constant learning makes the Companion increasingly valuable to its owner.
George friedman next years pdf
The Companion also plays an important role in driver-vehicle communications when the car transitions from Boost to Ease mode. While the driver concentrates on the road in Boost mode, the Companion remains flat in the dashboard.
A signal light tells the driver that the car is ready for fully autonomous driving. For other road users, the Companion has a similar function, signalling through its own light as well as that of the vehicle that the car is operating in automated mode. In certain traffic situations, the Companion is in visual contact with other road users, helping pedestrians to cross the road by means of the green light gradient on the front of the vehicle.
Inside, however, it has the dimensions of a luxury BMW sedan. The large wheels are positioned at the outer edges of the body, giving the vehicle the dynamic stance that is a trademark of BMW. When it comes to aerodynamics, exterior Alive Geometry contributes to an outstanding effect: when the wheels swivel as the vehicle is steered, the bodywork keeps them covered as if it were a flexible skin, accommodating their various positions.
CO2 emission information.
The exterior of the vehicle is copper in colour, designed to underscore the idea that BMW vehicles of the future should appear technical yet still have a warmth about them — as symbolised by the close links between the vehicle and its driver. This relationship begins as soon as the driver approaches the vehicle: intelligent sensor technologies automatically open its wing doors.
To give the driver more space to enter and exit, the steering wheel is flush with the dashboard. Once seated, the full range of systems is activated by tapping on the BMW logo in the middle of the dashboard. The door closes, the steering wheel comes forward, and the driving experience begins.
Materials of the future. The visible and non-visible carbon components, such as the side panels, are made from residues from normal carbon fibre production. In the future, the choice of materials will become even more important throughout the design and production process.
George friedman next years pdf
With time, other new materials will also be added into the mix, allowing different vehicle shapes to emerge. To save resources and support more sustainable manufacturing, less use will be made of wood and leather while innovative materials and the consequent new possibilities in design and production gradually come to the fore.
Digitalisation and connectivity are increasingly changing the way we get around on a daily basis — and this change is taking place most rapidly and noticeably in urban areas. In the cities of the future, will there be space for a car which engages at an emotional level?
And how can MINI respond to a world becoming ever more digitalised and interconnected? In the future, fans of the brand will be able to call on a MINI tailored to their personal requirements where ever they are, day or night. At the heart of this concept is fully connected digital intelligence. And in the future, you might not actually have to own a vehicle to enjoy the benefits.
The hallmark driving fun of a MINI will remain intact in the years ahead. Novel use of sustainable materials in the interior. Experience sharing — users become part of a MINI community. In the future, as now, people will be attracted in great numbers to MINI cars and the attitude to life associated with them. But it may not actually be necessary to own a MINI to be part of the action.
How that canvas is used varies according to the individual user, their mood and the situations they encounter. Even the colour of the roof and the lighting mood in the interior respond in kind. The MINI uses projections adapted to the driver in terms of colour, graphics and content to create a personalised experience and customised package of on-board information.
The Cooperizer forms a connection between the driver and digital intelligence. So the car can be adapted to give a perfectly personalised driving experience, whether driven conventionally or autonomously. Here, the MINI checks downloaded user data to select information of interest to the driver and provide them with potential sources of inspiration.
Or it could recommend a challenging, twisting route to the outskirts of town and switch to John Cooper Works performance mode. The urban go-kart — small, clever, nimble. MINI will continue to offer the driving fun we know and love in the future.
In the future, driving in a MINI must still be fun, to the extent that drivers will prefer to drive themselves — as often as possible. In a future world of self-driving cars, this side of motoring may have an even more significant, even more special role. Cleared of many controls and screens, the interior has a pure, uncluttered look.
And the glass front end opens up a dynamic view of the road. Here, augmented reality displays show the route or ideal driving line, heightening the driving sensation. In addition to these dynamic elements, dreaming up clever details and creating maximum interior space within the smallest possible footprint are other MINI essentials. The efficiently-packaged, zero-emission drive system and the reduced need for crash zones in the future enable a compactness of body not so far removed from the first MINI back in The generous feeling of cabin space is enhanced by a full-width bench seat and pedals that slide with the steering wheel to adjust their position.
World War I had killed millions. Empires had vanished. Germany had fallen. Communism ruled Russia. Jump to Germany had recovered and had started a terrifying war. Germany had lost and ended up split in two.
The U. The possibility of nuclear war rumbled in the background. America wanted so badly to thwart Soviet ambition that it allied with Communist China. Now, jump 20 more years:In Boost, the driver takes over and benefits from the subtle and intuitive support offered by the vehicle.
However, if you had examined the situation from a geopolitical perspective, you would have been able to predict major trends, as is done here.
The large wheels are positioned at the outer edges of the body, giving the vehicle the dynamic stance that is a trademark of BMW.
The efficiently-packaged, zero-emission drive system and the reduced need for crash zones in the future enable a compactness of body not so far removed from the first MINI back in Jan 26, Pages. Read An Excerpt.
India and Pakistan in the Next Years
He also tackles Russia, will he believes will want the U. The vehicle interior becomes a personal retreat. First, it sees that people gather into