TRADING CHAOS 2ND EDITION PDF

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Walled safely inside their gerrymandered districts, incumbents are insulated from general-election challenges that might pull them toward the political center, but they are perpetually vulnerable to primary challenges from extremists who pull them toward the fringes. Everyone worries about being the next Eric Cantor, the Republican House majority leader who, in a shocking upset, lost to an unknown Tea Partier in his primary. Legislators are scared of voting for anything that might increase the odds of a primary challenge, which is one reason it is so hard to raise the debt limit or pass a budget.

Moran in the August GOP primary. Purist issue groups often have the whip hand now, and unlike the elected bosses of yore, they are accountable only to themselves and are able merely to prevent legislative action, not to organize it.

We reformed political money. Starting in the s, large-dollar donations to candidates and parties were subject to a tightening web of regulations.

Trading Chaos: Maximize Profits with Proven Technical Techniques, 2nd Edition

The idea was to reduce corruption or its appearance and curtail the power of special interests—certainly laudable goals. Campaign-finance rules did stop some egregious transactions, but at a cost: Instead of eliminating money from politics which is impossible , the rules diverted much of it to private channels. Whereas the parties themselves were once largely responsible for raising and spending political money, in their place has arisen a burgeoning ecology of deep-pocketed donors, super pacs, c 4 s, and so-called groups that now spend hundreds of millions of dollars each cycle.

Private groups are much harder to regulate, less transparent, and less accountable than are the parties and candidates, who do, at the end of the day, have to face the voters. Because they thrive on purism, protest, and parochialism, the outside groups are driving politics toward polarization, extremism, and short-term gain.

La Raja recently for a Brookings Institution report.

Republicans told us the same story. Weakened by regulations and resource constraints, they have been reduced to spectators, while candidates and groups form circular firing squads and alienate voters. At the national level, the situation is even more chaotic—and ripe for exploitation by a savvy demagogue who can make himself heard above the din, as Donald Trump has so shrewdly proved.

How American Politics Went Insane

We reformed Congress. For a long time, seniority ruled on Capitol Hill. To exercise power, you had to wait for years, and chairs ran their committees like fiefs. It was an arrangement that hardly seemed either meritocratic or democratic.

FEATURED DOCUMENTS

Power on the Hill has flowed both up to a few top leaders and down to individual members. Unfortunately, the reformers overlooked something important: Seniority and committee spots rewarded teamwork and loyalty, they ensured that people at the top were experienced, and they harnessed hundreds of middle-ranking members of Congress to the tasks of legislating.

Smoke-filled rooms were good for brokering complex compromises in which nothing was settled until everything was settled. More than perhaps ever before, Congress today is a collection of individual entrepreneurs and pressure groups. In the House, disintermediation has shifted the balance of power toward a small but cohesive minority of conservative Freedom Caucus members who think nothing of wielding their power against their own leaders.

But Cruz was doing what makes sense in an age of maximal political individualism, and we can safely bet that his success will inspire imitation.

We reformed closed-door negotiations. As recently as the early s, congressional committees could easily retreat behind closed doors and members could vote on many bills anonymously, with only the final tallies reported. Federal advisory committees, too, could meet off the record.

Understandably, in the wake of Watergate, those practices came to be viewed as suspect. Today, federal law, congressional rules, and public expectations have placed almost all formal deliberations and many informal ones in full public view. One result is greater transparency, which is good. But another result is that finding space for delicate negotiations and candid deliberations can be difficult.

Smoke-filled rooms, whatever their disadvantages, were good for brokering complex compromises in which nothing was settled until everything was settled; once gone, they turned out to be difficult to replace. In public, interest groups and grandstanding politicians can tear apart a compromise before it is halfway settled.

Despite promising to televise negotiations over health-care reform, President Obama went behind closed doors with interest groups to put the package together; no sane person would have negotiated in full public view.

TV cameras, recorded votes, and public markups do increase transparency, but they come at the cost of complicating candid conversations. For most of American history, a principal goal of any member of Congress was to bring home bacon for his district.

Also, because pork was dispensed by powerful appropriations committees with input from senior congressional leaders, it provided a handy way for the leadership to download votes and reward loyalists. Conservatives and liberals alike attacked pork-barreling as corrupt, culminating in early , when a strange-bedfellows coalition of Tea Partiers and progressives banned earmarking, the practice of dropping goodies into bills as a way to attract votes—including, ironically, votes for politically painful spending reductions.

Routine business such as passing a farm bill or a surface-transportation bill now takes years instead of weeks or months to complete. Today two-thirds of federal-program spending excluding interest on the national debt runs on formula-driven autopilot. The political cost has also been high: Congressional leaders lost one of their last remaining tools to induce followership and team play. And he had no compunctions—which made him the perfect vector for anti-establishment sentiment.

It can be used for corrupt purposes but also, very often, for vital ones. Just last year, Republican Senator John McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was asked how his committee managed to pass bipartisan authorization bills year after year, even as the rest of Congress ground to a legislative standstill. But sweep them all away, and one finds that business is not getting done at all. The political reforms of the past 40 or so years have pushed toward disintermediation—by favoring amateurs and outsiders over professionals and insiders; by privileging populism and self-expression over mediation and mutual restraint; by stripping middlemen of tools they need to organize the political system.

All of the reforms promote an individualistic, atomized model of politics in which there are candidates and there are voters, but there is nothing in between. Other, larger trends, to be sure, have also contributed to political disorganization, but the war on middlemen has amplified and accelerated them.

All that was needed was for the right virus to come along and exploit the opening. As it happened, two came along. Tea Partiers shared some of the policy predilections of loyal Republican partisans, but their mind-set was angrily anti-establishment.

In a Pew Research poll, more than 70 percent of them disapproved of Republican leaders in Congress.

In a Pew poll, they had rejected compromise by similar margins. They thought nothing of mounting primary challenges against Republican incumbents, and they made a special point of targeting Republicans who compromised with Democrats or even with Republican leaders. Threats from the Tea Party and other purist factions often outweigh any blandishments or protection that leaders can offer.

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So far the Democrats have been mostly spared the anti-compromise insurrection, but their defenses are not much stronger. But the Democrats are vulnerable structurally, and the anti-compromise virus is out there.

A second virus was initially identified in , by the University of Nebraska at Lincoln political scientists John R. The rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, however, makes confronting its thesis unavoidable.

Using polls and focus groups, Hibbing and Theiss-Morse found that between 25 and 40 percent of Americans depending on how one measures have a severely distorted view of how government and politics are supposed to work. The reason these obvious solutions are not enacted is that politicians are corrupt, or self-interested, or addicted to unnecessary partisan feuding. Not surprisingly, politiphobes think the obvious, commonsense solutions are the sorts of solutions that they themselves prefer.

But the more important point is that they do not acknowledge that meaningful policy disagreement even exists.

From that premise, they conclude that all the arguing and partisanship and horse-trading that go on in American politics are entirely unnecessary. Politicians could easily solve all our problems if they would only set aside their craven personal agendas.

Politiphobes, according to Hibbing and Theiss-Morse, believe policy should be made not by messy political conflict and negotiations but by ensids: empathetic, non-self-interested decision makers. These are leaders who will step forward, cast aside cowardly politicians and venal special interests, and implement long-overdue solutions. Whether the process is democratic is not particularly important. Chances are that politiphobes have been out there since long before Hibbing and Theiss-Morse identified them in For a long time, seniority ruled on Capitol Hill.

To exercise power, you had to wait for years, and chairs ran their committees like fiefs. It was an arrangement that hardly seemed either meritocratic or democratic. Power on the Hill has flowed both up to a few top leaders and down to individual members.

Unfortunately, the reformers overlooked something important: Seniority and committee spots rewarded teamwork and loyalty, they ensured that people at the top were experienced, and they harnessed hundreds of middle-ranking members of Congress to the tasks of legislating. Smoke-filled rooms were good for brokering complex compromises in which nothing was settled until everything was settled.

More than perhaps ever before, Congress today is a collection of individual entrepreneurs and pressure groups.

In the House, disintermediation has shifted the balance of power toward a small but cohesive minority of conservative Freedom Caucus members who think nothing of wielding their power against their own leaders. But Cruz was doing what makes sense in an age of maximal political individualism, and we can safely bet that his success will inspire imitation.

We reformed closed-door negotiations. As recently as the early s, congressional committees could easily retreat behind closed doors and members could vote on many bills anonymously, with only the final tallies reported. Federal advisory committees, too, could meet off the record. Understandably, in the wake of Watergate, those practices came to be viewed as suspect. Today, federal law, congressional rules, and public expectations have placed almost all formal deliberations and many informal ones in full public view.

One result is greater transparency, which is good. But another result is that finding space for delicate negotiations and candid deliberations can be difficult. Smoke-filled rooms, whatever their disadvantages, were good for brokering complex compromises in which nothing was settled until everything was settled; once gone, they turned out to be difficult to replace. In public, interest groups and grandstanding politicians can tear apart a compromise before it is halfway settled.

Despite promising to televise negotiations over health-care reform, President Obama went behind closed doors with interest groups to put the package together; no sane person would have negotiated in full public view. TV cameras, recorded votes, and public markups do increase transparency, but they come at the cost of complicating candid conversations. For most of American history, a principal goal of any member of Congress was to bring home bacon for his district.

Also, because pork was dispensed by powerful appropriations committees with input from senior congressional leaders, it provided a handy way for the leadership to download votes and reward loyalists. Conservatives and liberals alike attacked pork-barreling as corrupt, culminating in early , when a strange-bedfellows coalition of Tea Partiers and progressives banned earmarking, the practice of dropping goodies into bills as a way to attract votes—including, ironically, votes for politically painful spending reductions.

Routine business such as passing a farm bill or a surface-transportation bill now takes years instead of weeks or months to complete. Today two-thirds of federal-program spending excluding interest on the national debt runs on formula-driven autopilot.

The political cost has also been high: Congressional leaders lost one of their last remaining tools to induce followership and team play. And he had no compunctions—which made him the perfect vector for anti-establishment sentiment. It can be used for corrupt purposes but also, very often, for vital ones. Just last year, Republican Senator John McCain, the chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, was asked how his committee managed to pass bipartisan authorization bills year after year, even as the rest of Congress ground to a legislative standstill.

But sweep them all away, and one finds that business is not getting done at all. The political reforms of the past 40 or so years have pushed toward disintermediation—by favoring amateurs and outsiders over professionals and insiders; by privileging populism and self-expression over mediation and mutual restraint; by stripping middlemen of tools they need to organize the political system.

All of the reforms promote an individualistic, atomized model of politics in which there are candidates and there are voters, but there is nothing in between. Other, larger trends, to be sure, have also contributed to political disorganization, but the war on middlemen has amplified and accelerated them.

All that was needed was for the right virus to come along and exploit the opening. As it happened, two came along. Tea Partiers shared some of the policy predilections of loyal Republican partisans, but their mind-set was angrily anti-establishment. In a Pew Research poll, more than 70 percent of them disapproved of Republican leaders in Congress.

In a Pew poll, they had rejected compromise by similar margins. They thought nothing of mounting primary challenges against Republican incumbents, and they made a special point of targeting Republicans who compromised with Democrats or even with Republican leaders. Threats from the Tea Party and other purist factions often outweigh any blandishments or protection that leaders can offer.

So far the Democrats have been mostly spared the anti-compromise insurrection, but their defenses are not much stronger. But the Democrats are vulnerable structurally, and the anti-compromise virus is out there.

A second virus was initially identified in , by the University of Nebraska at Lincoln political scientists John R. The rise of Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, however, makes confronting its thesis unavoidable. Using polls and focus groups, Hibbing and Theiss-Morse found that between 25 and 40 percent of Americans depending on how one measures have a severely distorted view of how government and politics are supposed to work.

The reason these obvious solutions are not enacted is that politicians are corrupt, or self-interested, or addicted to unnecessary partisan feuding.

Not surprisingly, politiphobes think the obvious, commonsense solutions are the sorts of solutions that they themselves prefer. But the more important point is that they do not acknowledge that meaningful policy disagreement even exists. From that premise, they conclude that all the arguing and partisanship and horse-trading that go on in American politics are entirely unnecessary.

Politicians could easily solve all our problems if they would only set aside their craven personal agendas. Politiphobes, according to Hibbing and Theiss-Morse, believe policy should be made not by messy political conflict and negotiations but by ensids: empathetic, non-self-interested decision makers. These are leaders who will step forward, cast aside cowardly politicians and venal special interests, and implement long-overdue solutions.

Whether the process is democratic is not particularly important. Chances are that politiphobes have been out there since long before Hibbing and Theiss-Morse identified them in In , Barack Obama pandered to a center-left version of the same fantasy, promising to magically transcend partisan politics and implement the best solutions from both parties. No previous outbreak, however, compares with the latest one, which draws unprecedented virulence from two developments.

One is a steep rise in antipolitical sentiment, especially on the right. According to polling by Pew, from to early the percentage of Americans saying they would be less likely to vote for a presidential candidate who had been an elected official in Washington for many years than for an outsider candidate more than doubled, from 15 percent to 31 percent.

The other development, of course, was Donald Trump, the perfect vector to concentrate politiphobic sentiment, intensify it, and inject it into presidential politics.

He had too much money and free media to be spent out of the race.

He had no political record to defend. He had no political debts or party loyalty. He had no compunctions. There was nothing to restrain him from sounding every note of the politiphobic fantasy with perfect pitch.

Democrats have not been immune, either.

Like Trump, he was a self-sufficient outsider without customary political debts or party loyalty. Like Trump, he neither acknowledged nor cared—because his supporters neither acknowledged nor cared—that his plans for governing were delusional.

That three of the four final presidential contenders in were political sociopaths is a sign of how far chaos syndrome has gone. The old, mediated system selected such people out. The new, disintermediated system seems to be selecting them in. Symptoms The disorder that exacerbates all other disorders There is nothing new about political insurgencies in the United States—nor anything inherently wrong with them.

Indicators we will use: Regards, Dale. I hope this will work out: Thanks for sharing this; Hesham. So do I! Benjimang Just a warning for people using technicals to trade the Aussie or Kiwi or Yen for that matter.How every person can experience intimacy with God [pdf] by Eddie Snipes.

There was nothing to restrain him from sounding every note of the politiphobic fantasy with perfect pitch. Conservatives and liberals alike attacked pork-barreling as corrupt, culminating in early , when a strange-bedfellows coalition of Tea Partiers and progressives banned earmarking, the practice of dropping goodies into bills as a way to attract votes—including, ironically, votes for politically painful spending reductions.

If the Constitution were all we had, politicians would be incapable of getting organized to accomplish even routine tasks. In their different ways, Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders have demonstrated that the major political parties no longer have intelligible boundaries or enforceable norms.

Politicians could easily solve all our problems if they would only set aside their craven personal agendas.